The Dubai property market continues its unprecedented growth, hitting new records in sales and transactions, particularly in September 2024. From the surge in mortgage activity to the ongoing dominance of off-plan developments, this momentum signals a promising outlook for the final quarter of the year. Let’s break down the key highlights from this month’s report.
Record-Breaking Sales Transactions
September 2024 saw an all-time high for Dubai real estate transactions, with a total of 18,038 sales. This marks a significant 11.7% increase from August and represents the highest-ever volume of sales recorded in a single month. Residential properties, including apartments, townhouses, and villas, accounted for the bulk of transactions (95.1%). The market’s annual sales transaction volume has already surpassed 131,000, and with three months left in the year, Dubai is on track to achieve nearly 170,000 sales by year-end—almost four times the sales activity seen before COVID-19.
Moderate Price Appreciation Continues
Following an exceptional rise in prices last month, Dubai’s property market returned to a more moderate pace of price growth in September, with an increase of 1.14%. The average price per square foot now stands at AED 1,448, representing a 17.4% increase over the previous market peak in 2014. This 43rd consecutive month of year-on-year growth brings the total price appreciation since 2020 to an impressive 57.9%.
Off-Plan Developments Surge
Off-plan developments continue to be a driving force in the Dubai property market. Over 13,500 new off-plan units were added to the market in September alone, with an estimated combined sales value of AED 28.9 billion. This surge in off-plan launches has pushed the market share of such transactions to a robust 72.8%. Apartments dominate the new inventory, comprising 83.5% of the newly launched units, while townhouses and villas account for 14.1% and 2.4%, respectively.
Notably, Emaar Properties leads the off-plan market, with projects like Golf Point, Address Residences, and Club Place contributing significantly to their 2,343 recorded transactions in September. DAMAC Properties and Sobha Group follow closely, with DAMAC’s new master developments and Sobha’s Riverside Crescent and Sobha Orbis projects among the top performers.
Highest Priced Apartment Sale of 2024
In September, the highest priced apartment sale of the year was recorded, with a luxury unit on Palm Jumeirah selling for AED 275 million. This sale highlights the ongoing demand for ultra-luxury properties, even as the market expands across various price segments.
Mortgage Transactions See a 16.6% Increase
After a slight dip in August, mortgage transactions bounced back in September, with a 16.6% increase to 4,183 registrations, marking the second-highest level of loans ever recorded. This resurgence in mortgage activity is largely attributed to easing interest rates, particularly for variable-rate products, which have seen reductions of around 20 basis points.
Mortgage activity for new purchases accounted for 44.4% of all loans in September, with an average borrowing amount of AED 1.73 million and a loan-to-value ratio of 76.6%. Notably, bulk mortgages—those taken by developers and investors with multiple units—saw a marked increase, representing 21.1% of total borrowing activity for the month.
Off-Plan Resales on the Rise
The off-plan resale market continues to grow steadily, accounting for 25.9% of all resale transactions in September, a 1.7% increase from the previous month. While the overall resale market saw a slight decline (down 1.2% month-on-month), off-plan resales reached the second-highest level in the current market cycle. As more off-plan projects approach completion, resales of properties still under construction are becoming an increasingly important factor in the overall market dynamic.
What Lies Ahead for the Final Quarter?
Looking ahead, the Dubai property market is expected to maintain its positive trajectory throughout the remainder of 2024 and into 2025. The continued surge in off-plan developments will likely widen the gap between off-plan and completed property sales, with competitively priced inventory driving demand. As mortgage rates continue to ease, ready properties could see a rise in buyer interest, but sellers may need to avoid overly aggressive pricing strategies to capitalize on this demand.
However, the trend of flipping off-plan properties before handover will need careful monitoring to prevent potential pricing and supply pressures. Should price growth remain moderate, within the 1% range, the market will likely continue its healthy expansion, avoiding concerns of overheating.
A Market Like No Other
Dubai’s property market in 2024 is a testament to the UAE government’s strategic initiatives, creating a landscape of sustained growth and diversity. From record-breaking sales volumes to a wide array of new project launches, the market has evolved beyond post-pandemic recovery to unprecedented heights. As we enter the final quarter, all eyes will be on how this momentum carries through to the new year, with industry experts forecasting a continued upward trajectory for both prices and transactions.
All statistics are provided by Property Monitor- the region’s leading real estate intelligence platform.
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